One summit down, one to go?

HELLO and welcome to Transition Playbook. Everything had pointed toward a deal on the EU’s top jobs at a summit in Brussels on Monday. As you’ll already know, that didn’t happen. So the leaders are coming back (as they were always going to do) on Thursday and Friday next week for a summit that now has extra pressure on it. Failure to secure a deal at the second time of asking would be a very bad look indeed (especially as the summit in Brussels will end two days before the first round of the French presidential election).
EU TOP JOBS — WHERE ARE WE AT? We would all like to have our lives back, and next week is crunch time when it comes to EU top jobs. So let’s bring you up to speed on where things stand and what will happen next week.
In front of the cameras: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is part of the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group, has been firing warning shots that she’s not happy about being excluded from the negotiations held by the European People’s Party, socialists and liberals. EU diplomats frame Meloni’s stance as a way to try and get a big economic portfolio in the next European Commission.
Behind the scenes: The EU’s six negotiators from the three centrist political families are doubling down on behind-the-scenes negotiations to lock in von der Leyen at the EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday/Friday. Some are even aiming for a deal before the European Council.
Once bitten, twice shy: Such a pre-cooked agreement is likely to (again) anger the other European leaders. “You know politicians, they need some political theatre. If everything is pre-agreed, then things could derail again. You have to at least keep up appearances.”
So everything looks good for VDL? The European Commission president is still the clear front-runner to get the green light from EU leaders for a second term, despite the widespread annoyance over the EPP’s greediness in the top jobs game (the EPP floated splitting the job of the European Council president rather than giving all five years to the socialists). “The EPP is like the very hungry caterpillar,” one EU diplomat said, referring to the popular children’s book about an insect that keeps on eating.
But but but: A week is a long time in politics. Even if EU leaders agree on the package as it is laid out right now, von der Leyen still has to secure the necessary votes in the European Parliament. And in the Parliament, it’s one strike and you’re out.
Want more on where we are on top jobs? Here’s an explainer.
by Barbara Moens
** A message from FuelsEurope: Climate neutrality cannot be achieved without renewable fuels. Our industry is part of the solution to meet EU’s climate objectives. But, as significant policy improvements are needed to unlock investments and technologies, we offer the EU our cooperation to design a Strategy for the Transition of Liquid Fuels and Products. More.**
ANOTHER BIG RENEW DEPARTURE: Andrej Babiš’ MEPs will leave the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, he announced at a press conference today. His Action of Dissatisfied Citizens party (ANO) came first in the EU election in the Czech Republic and has 7 MEPs.
We’re outta here: “We are leaving Renew because we cannot fulfill our program there. And we don’t want to betray our voters,” Ondřej Knotek, an MEP from ANO who was re-elected in June, told POLITICO’s Ketrin Jochecová. ANO is also set to quit the pan-European umbrella family of liberal parties known as ALDE.
Good news? Babiš’ decision to quit will likely come as some relief to those on the more socially progressive side of Renew, including Emmanuel Macron’s MEPs. This week, a letter sent by the five MEPs from the pan-European Volt to party members remarked that one of the reasons they preferred joining the Greens rather than Renew was that the “populist” party of Babiš was at the time a member of Renew.
Good riddance: Renew President Valérie Hayer said in a statement: “This was a divorce that was long overdue. ANO has chosen a populist path that is incompatible with our values and identity.”
Bad news? Losing ANO will be another numerical blow to the Renew group and make it extremely difficult for the liberals to again become the third-biggest group in Parliament (see below). That means Renew could get fewer prestigious legislative roles in the next Parliament, which kicks off in mid-July.
DO THE MATH: This week, 14 MEPs submitted their candidacy to sit with the EPP in the EU Parliament, cementing its position as by far the largest grouping, followed by the Socialists. Write-up here.
ECR GETS BRONZE: In third place now is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, after it netted 11 new members, giving it 83 MEPs and pushing it ahead of Renew (and that was before the news from the Czech Republic and Andrej Babiš).
SUPERGROUP CALL: Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán has been urging French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and Meloni to join forces in a sprawling far-right faction. “We used to dream about this, and then we wake up and it turns out that the two ladies cannot come to an agreement,” he griped.
MEGA: Speaking of Hungary, Budapest unveiled “Make Europe Great Again” as the slogan for its upcoming six-month presidency of the Council of the EU. No points for originality.
SUPREME LEADER WEBER: Meanwhile, Manfred Weber was elected unopposed for a fifth term as EPP group chairman, with a whopping 95 percent support in a secret ballot. Weber is also the EPP party president.
ITALIAN ACTIVIST FREED: Italian anti-fascist activist and newly minted MEP Ilaria Salis returned to Italy after being freed from house arrest in Hungary. She had been held for more than a year on charges relating to allegedly assaulting neo-Nazis in Budapest but gained immunity after she was elected to the European Parliament.
GARCÍA’S RETURN: Socialists and Democrats President Iratxe García will stand again as group leader, a spokesperson told Brussels Playbook. And she’ll almost certainly run unopposed. Playbook’s Eddy Wax hears the Italians have backed off and the weakened German Social Democrats won’t challenge either. García is rumored also to have an eye on the Parliament presidency between 2024 and 2026.
A NEW RIGHT GROUP? Now that Andrej Babiš’ MEPs are out of the Renew group, where will they go? How about joining forces with Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz? And what of Slovenia’s ex-PM Janez Janša? His MEPs sit with the EPP. Janša and Orbán were photographed (together with former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki) in Brussels on Monday. Also unattached in the EU Parliament … the 6 MEPs from Slovakia’s Smer (the party of Robert Fico).
CZECH NAME IN THE FRAME: Prague wants Czech ambassador Edita Hrdá to get a commissioner post, we’re hearing.
CAN SEE THE WOOD FOR THE TREES: Finland’s candidate, HennaVirkkunen, could be interested in an industry, digital or transport portfolio and especially something that includes forests (of which Finland isn’t exactly lacking).
LETTA’S GO: Former Italian PM Enrico Letta could be eyeing a plum EU gig after pulling out of the race to run Sciences Po at the last minute. According to La Repubblica, Letta, who recently authored a report on the future of the single market, may be reconsidering stepping out of the political limelight and fancies a tilt at the European Council presidency.
Current excitement level: It’s going to get sorted this week, right? RIGHT?
Last word: “No one is telling us: ‘you are fucked,’” an EPP official close to Ursula von der Leyen. 
THANKS TO: Seb Starcevic, Eddy Wax, Paul Dallison and Ellen Boonen
** A message from FuelsEurope: As we enter a new institutional cycle, we are ready to cooperate with the EU and Member states, to impact-assess the existing regulations, suggest corrective actions and unlock technological and investment potential for a carbon-neutral future, secure and affordable for all EU citizens. The right EU policy framework will enable us to make a significant contribution and investment to help successfully deliver climate neutrality by 2050, ensure energy’s secure supply, and foster innovative, EU-based, globally competitive industry. The transformation has begun. Some of our conventional refineries in Europe have been converted into biorefineries, replacing petroleum by 100% sustainable biomass. Other refineries are already co-processing a mix of fossil and biomass raw material, the latter enabling to replace oil feedstock to gradually reduce the products’ carbon footprint. Significant investments are also being made in other clean technologies, such as renewable electricity, charging points for EVs or hydrogen production. More.**
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